The ocean shipping market continues to be shaped by a complex mix of policy shifts, evolving trade flows, capacity recalibrations, and ongoing disruptions. Heading into 2026, however, the global economic outlook pointed to relatively stable growth, with the International Monetary Fund projecting U.S. GDP at 2.4%, China at 4.5%, and Europe at 1.3%.

Looking back at 2025, carriers reported encouraging results. Speaking at a March press conference, Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen said full-year volumes rose 8.2%, with trans-Pacific volumes surging 23%—driven in large part by the Gemini Cooperation with Maersk, which launched February 1, 2025.

Built on a hub-and-spoke model, Gemini features 29 mainliner services supported by shuttle connections, forming what Hapag-Lloyd describes as a “flexible, interconnected ocean network” with schedule reliability exceeding 90%.

Jansen also outlined a series of network enhancements set to take effect in April 2026, including Far East–North Europe services like NE2, which adds a direct Antwerp call to improve access to Benelux markets. In the Mediterranean, updates include SE1, adding Algeciras in both directions to strengthen Adriatic connections, and SE3, which will deploy 20,000-TEU vessels with simplified rotations and new Istanbul/Izmit shuttle links.

At the same time, Gemini has begun transitioning select services back through the Suez Canal in early 2026, with routing decisions continuing to hinge on evolving security conditions—offering another signal that conditions, while still fluid, may be stabilizing.

Enter the U.S.-Iran war

However, industry experts—including those at Hapag-Lloyd—expect 2026 to be far more challenging. The reason: the February surprise attack on Iran by the U.S. and Israel, which has quickly escalated into a major geopolitical and supply chain disruption.

Market analysts widely view the conflict as the most significant threat to global supply chains since the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly given that roughly 20% of the world’s oil and gas typically flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

As of April 2026, that critical chokepoint is largely blocked. The International Maritime Organization estimates that between 2,000 and 2,500 vessels—and roughly 20,000 seafarers—are stranded in the Persian Gulf. Hapag-Lloyd executives noted that six of their own vessels remain caught in the disruption.

With no clear timeline for resolution, forecasting has become increasingly difficult. While President Trump initially suggested the conflict would be short-lived, negotiations remain stalled, leaving analysts focused less on demand projections and more on the immediate impact to fuel prices and transportation costs.

“The Iran conflict has caused significant disruption to ocean shipping, driving container spot rates up by over 30% on key routes since late February 2026,” Xeneta reports.

Fuel has emerged as the central pressure point. According to Philip Damas, managing director and head of Drewry Supply Chain Advisors, marine fuel prices have surged more than 70% since the start of the year, prompting carriers to impose emergency bunker adjustment factors beginning in March. In response, many shippers are now revisiting their own fuel surcharge policies to gain more control and transparency over rising costs.

Energy markets reflect the same volatility. In March, Brent crude surpassed $100 per barrel, driving bunker costs higher and triggering a sharp increase in ocean freight rates. Xeneta data shows Far East-to-Mediterranean spot rates jumping 26% to more than $4,200 per FEU.

At the same time, pricing signals remain uneven. Drewry’s World Container Index rose above $2,300 per FEU in April, reversing a brief downward trend following elevated pricing in late March.

Looking ahead, much depends on the duration of the conflict. If it proves short-lived, Damas expects demand and freight rates to normalize, with no lasting demand destruction. A prolonged conflict, however, would likely sustain elevated fuel costs and drive continued increases in ocean freight rates.

Some analysts believe that shift is already underway. Container Freight Rate Insight reports that the market is beginning to price in a “new normal,” characterized by fuel-driven cost increases, widespread surcharges, rerouted networks, and broader supply chain inflation.

Fuel markets reinforce that outlook. Prices in major bunkering hubs such as Singapore have surged sharply since February, in some cases more than doubling, with longer-term projections pointing to sustained levels well above pre-conflict benchmarks.

Drewry forecasts that rising fuel costs will push container spot rates up at least 15% on major east-west trades—and significantly more on Middle East-linked routes. Early data supports that trend, with trans-Pacific rates to the U.S. West Coast climbing roughly 29% by early April.

Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, notes that even trades far removed from the conflict zone are feeling the impact, citing a 37% increase in spot rates from China to the U.S. West Coast. He attributes this to congestion cascading through key transshipment hubs, including Singapore, Tanjung Pelepas, and Port Klang.

Tariff implications

Meanwhile, the Trump Administration’s ever-changing policies regarding tariffs are impacting decision by manufacturers regarding how to route and where to source goods.

Higher tariffs have already caused some manufacturers to shift production away from China to countries such as those in southeast Asia. In 2025, this had already resulted in a 29.7% decline of Chinese exports to the US, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and a 28.9% increase of imports from ASEAN countries per US Trade Representative figures.

As a result, seaports in ASEAN are increasingly becoming core hubs for global trade with ports such as Tanjung Pelepas in Malaysia and Laem Chabang in Thailand expanding to capture the increase. Likewise, shipping lines are increasing container capacity in these markets to support that growth.

Remaining factors

It’s important, however, to not lose site that typically only 3% of global containerized freight is destined for or transits through Persian Gulf markets. Today 0% is getting through.

“Ocean carriers that had Gulf-bound containers on their ships have discharged them at contingency ports or returned them to the port of origin—leaving exporters to manage the issue,” says Damas.

Meanwhile, ocean carriers and NVOCCs have quickly developed alternative ways to send cargo to the Gulf, usually using trucks for the last part of the journey.  “Some are amending networks to provide alternative routes via ports in Turkey, Saudi Arabia [Red Sea side] or the United Arab Emirates [south of the Strait of Hormuz],” Damas says.

Some carriers are using transshipment ports in India to move containers to ports located closer to the Gulf. “This is causing congestion at Indian ports,” Damas says.

Even carriers and shippers not involved in Persian Gulf trade are finding the situation there is having a direct impact on global shipping because of vessel bunching, driven by Middle East conflict-related diversions and increased transshipment volumes.

“Within the first four to five days of the conflict around 100,000 TEUs had nowhere to go with roughly 14,000 TEUs being displaced every day,” Sand explains.

And in addition to ports in India, Xeneta reports that large transshipment hubs such as Singapore and Colombo are severely congested. “Singapore has been above 40% congestion since the conflict began,” adds Sand.

But schedules and services on the major routes not connected to the Middle East continue to operate as prior to the conflict. “We do expect a high percentage of cancelled sailings due to the current disruptions and higher fuel prices,” Damas adds.

Industry experts had expected a return to the Suez Canal route this year, but with increased security risks caused by the Iran conflict many believe that potential baseline is now deferred to mid-2027.

That said, Sand warns that not all operators are managing routings around the Cape of Good Hope equally well. “Do not treat 10- to 14-day to transit the Cape as a baseline,” he says. “As more cargo is diverted to alternative ports and transshipment hubs, yard density is rising and port efficiency is deteriorating.”

He adds that while US ports are not directly affected by the Iran conflict, indirect ripple effects are possible as Cape of Good Hope re-routings extend Asia-America transit times and congestion builds at Southeast Asian transshipment hubs.

While everyone prays for a lasting ceasefire in the Persian Gulf, Sand warns that a rapid return to normality for container shipping in the Middle East is unlikely. First, there is no guarantee the ceasefire will hold, he says. Second, the conflict has displaced 250,000 TEU of weekly container shipping capacity.

“Carriers have put a lot of effort and expense into establishing alternative routings to allow goods to flow into the region,” he says. “You do not suddenly toss that out of the window because there is a two-week ceasefire.”

Big challenge ahead                                                                                                                  

Whether a ceasefire is realized or not in the Persian Gulf region, one fundamental factor continues to strain the industry: significant over-capacity created by a 17% orderbook-to-fleet ratio, per Sea-Intelligence.

MSC has the largest existing fleet of container vessels in the world and the largest orderbook. Maersk ranks second with its vessel fleet, but third with its orderbook. CMA CGM has the third largest fleet in the world with the second largest orderbook. (See Alphaliner chart.)

This overcapacity is expected to peak in 2027 when a surge in new ships over 14,000 TEU will be delivered just as capacity demand softens.

“Over-capacity will continue to push average freight rates down,” says Damas. “Over-capacity also will reassert itself and put pressure on spot rates again later this year. In the short term, however, more expensive fuel costs are stopping or reversing this deflationary trend in freight rates.”

Future investments aim to stabilize ocean shipping

While the Iran conflict has introduced a new wave of disruption for global shipping, several underlying trends remain intact—most notably continued investment by ocean carriers and their partners in technology, forwarding services, and port operations.

Many view these investments as critical to maintaining service reliability and consistency.

Evan Armstrong, CEO of Armstrong & Associates (A&A), points to how ocean carriers are modernizing their API capabilities, shifting from legacy EDI systems to real-time, standardized digital ecosystems.

“This shift is expected to drive a digital transformation in ocean freight forwarding,” says Armstrong, noting parallels to the adoption of API-enabled dynamic rates and e-bookings already seen in air cargo.

Among the benefits, Armstrong says, is more flexible pricing through index-linked contracts. “This ties freight rates to market indices rather than locking them into fixed annual agreements,” he explains, adding that the approach better reflects real-time market conditions for both shippers and carriers.

Armstrong also highlights Maersk’s “OneWireless” platform, designed to improve container tracking and support its integrated logistics strategy. Spanning 450 vessels and scheduled for completion in early 2026, the platform will enable real-time cargo visibility and enhanced operational efficiency.

The transition from 2G to 4G connectivity is expected to significantly improve data granularity, particularly for temperature-sensitive shipments.

Beyond software, companies are also upgrading physical infrastructure and automation capabilities. Maersk continues to expand its integrated logistics, terminals, and ocean networks to strengthen end-to-end control, according to Transport Intelligence (Ti).

At the same time, DP World is expanding as a diversified logistics provider, deploying significant capital into infrastructure, Ti analysts note. Projects such as Caucedo in the Dominican Republic and Tartus in Syria reflect increasing private investment in emerging maritime gateways, along with geographic diversification and concession-based models.

“These investments align with nearshoring and the rise of regional trade hubs, while reinforcing DP World’s footprint across key corridors,” Ti says.

DP World is also modernizing terminals with automation technologies such as BOXBAY and exploring autonomous freight systems.

Strategic partnerships are also accelerating innovation. In 2025, CMA CGM partnered with Mistral AI, backed by a €100 million investment, to scale AI adoption across shipping and logistics.