Following a revenue rebound, from 2023 to 2024, the United States third-party logistics (3PL) market made continued inroads in 2025, according to a new report recently issued by Brookfield, Wis.-based supply chain consultancy Armstrong & Associates.

The report, entitled “Reshaping: Third-Party Logistics in a Decade of Structural Change,” said that U.S. 3PL Market net revenues, which Armstrong defines as gross revenues less purchased transportation, increased 5.1% annually in 2025, to $138.2 billion, topping the 1.8% 2024 annual gain, to $131.5 billion.

And it added that 2025 gross revenues headed up 5.0% annually, coming in at $323.4 billion (with the final tally including $4.5 billion for the contract logistics software), for the four segments of the 3PL market—Dedicated Contract Carriage, or DCC, (also known as asset-based transportation), Value-Added Warehousing and Distribution (VAWD), International Transportation Management (ITM), and Domestic Transportation Management (DTM), which includes freight brokerage, managed transportation, intermodal transportation management, and last-mile delivery. This came in ahead of a 2.8% annual gain in 2024, with the firm saying this growth path confirms that the freight recession, which commenced toward the end of 2022, is nearing its conclusion, with growth being forecasted through 2027.

Armstrong reported the following for 2025 U.S. 3PL Market Growth by segment:

• DTM gross revenue, at $128.3 billion, up 4.5% annually, and net revenue, at $19.6 billion, up 3.0% annually;
• ITM gross revenue, at $85.9 billion, up 7.7% annually, and net revenue, at $30.4 billion, up 11.0% annually;
• DCC gross revenue, at $32.0 billion, up 1.6% annually, and net revenue, also at $32.0 billion, up 2.5% annually; and
• VAWD gross revenue, at $72.7 billion, up 4.4% annually, and net revenue, at $56.1 billion, up 4.4% annually

In an interview with LM, Evan Armstrong, President of Armstrong & Associates, described 2025 as a “pretty good” growth year, for a few different reasons.

“On the ITM side, with air and freight forwarding, there have been the gyrations with the tariffs, which means the more complexity there is, it is usually better for 3PLs,” he said. There on-again and off-again tariffs, followed by the Supreme Court’s IEEPA ruling, the current global tariff rate is now at around 11% across-the-board, which is manageable—and with all of the shifts in tariffs, it was good for freight forwarders and their compliance and customs brokerage departments that had to manage it all.”

As for domestic transportation, Armstrong pointed to ongoing activity related to motor carrier revocations, and carriers that could not pay their insurance, which tightened carrier capacity, which has been good for freight brokers.

“If shippers can’t find trucks, they turn to freight brokers, and if there is excess capacity, then shippers can find carriers on their own, leaving less of a need for brokers,” said. “When you get into tight capacity situations like we are in now, it benefits brokers and leads to decent growth. Following the Montgomery ruling and what happened in terms of carrier vetting and hiring carriers, we expect pretty good growth in freight brokerage throughout this year.”  

Regarding VAWD, the report highlighted how warehouse vacancy rates are stabilizing, coupled with slowing rent growth, and changes in tenant requirements, due to tariff-related adjustments. What’s more, it added that the market is rebalancing after “extraordinary tightness” in 2021 and 2022.

“Despite overall economic uncertainty, demand for warehouse space has been even-keeled,” the report said. “There has been a surge in demand for big-box facilities exceeding 500,000 square-feet, fueled by e-commerce [3PLs], manufacturers, and increasingly, data center tenants vying for the same industrial land.”

Looking ahead, Armstrong expects a similar annual growth track, for U.S. 3PL gros revenue, with: total gross revenue, pegged at $336.9 billion, up 5.6% annually; DTM, at $139.0 billion, up 8.3%; ITM, at $89.4 billion, up 4.1%; DCC, at $75.2 billion, up 3.5%; and VAWD, at $75.2 billion, up 3.5%.

“We’re going to see lower ocean and air freight forwarding growth, especially now that it looks like there may be a deal in place to end the Iran conflict,” said Armstrong. “DTM could lead the growth, given the tight capacity and following the Supreme Court ruling.”